Primes in short intervals: Heuristics and calculations

Andrew Granville, Allysa Lumley

Published 2020-09-10, updated 2020-09-11Version 2

We formulate, using heuristic reasoning, precise conjectures for the range of the number of primes in intervals of length $y$ around $x$, where $y\ll (\log x)^2$. In particular we conjecture that the maximum grows surprisingly slowly as $y$ ranges from $\log x$ to $(\log x)^2$. We will show that our conjectures are somewhat supported by available data, though not so well that there may not be room for some modification.