Uncertainty quantification in nuclear shell model

Sota Yoshida, Noritaka Shimizu, Tomoaki Togashi, Takaharu Otsuka

Published 2018-10-08Version 1

Theoretical uncertainty quantifications are of great importance to make meaningful comparisons with experimental data and predictions in experimentally unknown regions, and only after performing it one can make more solid statements about, e.g., origins of discrepancy in some quantities between theory and experiment. We propose a novel method to quantify uncertainties in nuclear shell-model calculations coming from its input parameters, effective interactions, by regarding them not as points but as probability distributions over the parameter space. This enables us to quantify the agreement with experimental data in a statistical manner. Moreover, we propose large deviations between the confidence interval in shell-model spectra and experimental data can be used as indicators of some exotic properties of the states like cluster structure, etc. Other possible applications and impacts are also discussed.