The Cohen-Lenstra heuristics, moments and $p^j$-ranks of some groups

Christophe Delaunay, Frédéric Jouhet

Published 2013-03-29Version 1

This article deals with the coherence of the model given by the Cohen-Lenstra heuristic philosophy for class groups and also for their generalizations to Tate-Shafarevich groups. More precisely, our first goal is to extend a previous result due to E. Fouvry and J. Kl\"uners which proves that a conjecture provided by the Cohen-Lenstra philosophy implies another such conjecture. As a consequence of our work, we can deduce, for example, a conjecture for the probability laws of $p^j$-ranks of Selmer groups of elliptic curves. This is compatible with some theoretical works and other classical conjectures.