Day-ahead electricity prices prediction applying hybrid models of LSTM-based deep learning methods and feature selection algorithms under consideration of market coupling
Published 2021-01-13Version 1
The availability of accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasts is pivotal for electricity market participants. In the context of trade liberalisation and market harmonisation in the European markets, accurate price forecasting becomes even more difficult to obtain. The increasing power market integration has complicated the forecasting process, where electricity forecasting requires considering features from both the local market and ever-growing coupling markets. In this paper, we apply state-of-the-art deep learning models, combined with feature selection algorithms for electricity price prediction under the consideration of market coupling. We propose three hybrid architectures of long-short term memory (LSTM) deep neural networks and compare the prediction performance, in terms of various feature selections. In our empirical study, we construct a broad set of features from the Nord Pool market and its six coupling countries for forecasting the Nord Pool system price. The results show that feature selection is essential to achieving accurate prediction. Superior feature selection algorithms filter meaningful information, eliminate irrelevant information, and further improve the forecasting accuracy of LSTM-based deep neural networks. The proposed models obtain considerably accurate results.